Climate ChangeThe facts

How emissions are tracking

According to CSIRO, mitigation efforts in the next few decades will have a large influence on whether greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere can be stabilised at a level low enough to reduce the risk of more serious climate change impacts.

The Internation Energy Agency, in the 2011 edition of their anuual publication CO₂ Emissions From Fuel Combustion, produced the following graph showing the continual increase in global emissions. While 2009 showed a slight decrease after the Global Financial Crisis, 2010 has reversed that decline, with annual emissions exceeding 30000 Mt CO₂.

Professor John Abraham compares this data to the IPCC's emissions scenarios.

"Scenario A2 puts us at 850 ppm atmospheric CO₂ in 2100, with an average global surface temperature 3.5°C hotter than in 2000 (more than 4°C above pre-industrial levels). If we return back up to Scenario A1FI (fossil fuel intensive), which we were exceeding until the global financial crisis, we're looking at 950 ppm CO₂ and 4°C global warming over the 21st Century (more than 4.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures in 2100)."

Fatih Birol is the Chief Economist of the IEA, publishers of the annual global emissions, and has said:

"I am very worried. This is the worst news on emissions…It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below 2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say."

Two degrees is generally considered the level at which catastrophic climate change occurs.

To highlight the importance of reducing emissions, below we draw on CSIRO's "Reducing Australia's greenhouse emi

ssions" fact sheet which stresses that broadbased actions are needed given how emissions are tracking.

Limiting greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere requires broad-based action across many sectors of the global economy. In Australia, it is a major national undertaking that involves households, companies, communities and governments.

Mitigation efforts in the next few decades will have a large influence on whether greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere can be stabilised at a level low enough to reduce the risk of more serious climate change impacts. Many impacts can be avoided, reduced or delayed by mitigating, and cutting net global greenhouse gas emissions.

Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilisation levels and global warming. There will be no single solution to this challenge - a portfolio of approaches is required to achieve mitigation targets.

Practical solutions

Practical approaches that Australia can advance include:

Harnessing the sun for green power

Capturing and storing carbon to clean up coal use

Using biofuels for lower emission transport

Reducing emissions in the home

Farm and forest solutions for greenhouse gas emissions.

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